Australian Agricultural Commodities Outlook 2018 Snapshot.
Australian Agricultural Commodities Outlook 2018 Snapshot. (Source: Rabobank Agribusiness Outlook 2018)
Wheat – prices will continue to be weighed down in 2018, following another record year of global wheat production in 2017, and with forecast global 2017/18 ending stocks set to reach a new record of 273 million tonnes. Prospects for market strengthening have however emerged, with Rabobank forecasting a limited price appreciation in the global benchmark over the coming year.
Barley – forecasts for the lowest global ending stocks in more than 30 years and ongoing strength in Australian livestock markets are set to keep barley prices elevated.
Dairy – the road to recovery resumes, the Rabobank report says, with trading conditions for dairy farmers to be broadly attractive, and processor ownership issues resolving. Growth in the global exportable dairy surpluses will however continue to expand in the first quarter of the year, putting ongoing pressure on global prices. However, the bank isn’t expecting these surpluses to overwhelm the global market. China’s import appetite for dairy is also forecast to remain buoyant during the year.
Beef – growing global beef (as well as poultry and pork) production, together with increased cattle inventory in Australia, will exert downward pressure on Australian cattle prices through 2018.
Sheepmeat – Strong export markets and limited growth in global lamb production are expected to continue to drive good prices for the lamb industry in 2018.
Wool – Tight market conditions should continue through the first half of 2018 and help to support high prices.
Wine – The wine industry is riding a wave of positive forces. It is likely to enjoy its best year in a long time in 2018.
Grain & Oilseeds – Forecast for the lowest global ending stocks in over 30 years and ongoing strength in Australian livestock markets are set to keep barley prices elevated in 2018.
Cotton – Downside risks are developing for prices in the second half of 2018.
Sugar – Rabobank expect the global sugar market to return to surplus in the 2017/18 season.
Horticulture – Australia’s horticulture industry continues to make hard-won gains in offshore markets, enabling it to capitalise on growing demand for high-quality fresh produce offshore.
Fertilizer – Oversupplied markets will continue to hold down prices across the nutrient complex through 2018.